Disclaimer: This article is based on actual news from the real world – honestly! However, it has been sprinkled with a healthy dose of satire.
Prediction market users have wagered £2.5 million on whether Jesus Christ will physically return to Earth, a transaction that required Polymarket’s compliance team to create a new asset class called “acts of God.” Insurance already had that term, but this time, Polymarket means it literally.
Don't you hate that feeling when you're resurrected, and you can't remember if you turned off the oven? (VitalikRadko/depositphotos)
The wagers were placed on Polymarket, a prediction market platform experts describe as “a cutting-edge way to get reliable odds on crucial real-world events,” a phrase that now apparently includes the bodily resurrection of the messiah. Users who bet against Christ’s 2025 return collected a tidy 5.5% profit, outperforming most municipal bonds and roughly 100% of all prayers.
John Holden, associate professor of business law and ethics at Indiana University’s Kelley School of Business, said he wasn’t surprised people took the odds. “People buy lottery tickets despite astronomical odds,” he explained. Holden declined to comment on whether or not lottery tickets traditionally involve wagering on the fulfillment of Revelation, or what anyone would need cash for if it actually came to pass.
The platform also offers bets on Elon Musk’s tweet frequency (near constantly), whether Jeffrey Epstein is secretly alive (no), and outbreaks of major wars (near constantly), providing a diversified portfolio for investors who find traditional index funds spiritually, morally, and ethically insufficient.
Melinda Roth, associate professor at Washington and Lee School of Law, called the Jesus market “distracting” and said it “diminishes the value of actual prediction markets that provide insights and useful information.” She did not clarify which prediction markets she considers non-distracting, though the Musk tweet frequency tracker presumably remains under review.
One user speculated online that the Christ bet might be “some kind of tax avoidance scheme,” raising questions about which line on the 1040 covers speculative theological derivatives.
Good luck finding the Jesus section… (shirotie/depositphotos)
Defenders of the practice note that wagering on religious outcomes has historical precedent. Blaise Pascal, the 17th-century mathematician, famously argued it was more rational to believe in God because the potential payoff of eternal life outweighs any finite cost, a position that, until recently, did not include a 5,700% potential return on a correctly timed “Yes.”
Betting has now shifted to whether Christ will return by the end of 2026. Polymarket currently gives it 2% odds. For comparison, this makes the Second Coming roughly as likely as a functioning Congress and significantly less likely than another Cybertruck recall.
The platform’s terms of service do not specify how winning bets would be settled in the event of an actual Rapture, nor whether users raptured mid-transaction forfeit their positions.
This story is based on fully factual news, but if we got it wrong, blame these guys, we’re just here to make it funny.
