Disclaimer: This article is based on actual news from the real world – honestly! However, it has been sprinkled with a healthy dose of satire.
WASHINGTON — U.S. intelligence agencies are studying how Iran would react if President Trump declared a unilateral victory in the two-month-old war, according to two officials and a person familiar with the matter, which is the kind of question you ask when you have already decided on the answer and just need someone to write it down. What’s strange is that Trump has already declared unilateral victory on multiple occasions since the war started, so they should know by now.
Declaring another 'victory'. (zabelin/depositphotos)
The assessment was requested by senior administration officials, who are reportedly concerned that a war that has killed thousands of people, closed twenty percent of global oil shipping, and driven gas to $5.40 a gallon might also affect the November elections. Officials describe Trump as “keenly aware” of the political price being paid by him and his party, which is one way to describe the situation, the other being that thousands of people are dead. Also, that’s a total fabrication, Trump isn’t “keenly aware” of anything.
The intelligence community has run this analysis before. In February, in the days following the opening bombing campaign, agencies concluded that if Trump declared victory and pulled the troops out, Iran would view it as a win. If Trump declared victory and kept the troops in, Iran would view it as a negotiating tactic. If Trump declared victory and did nothing else, Iran would presumably view it as a day ending in y.
Asked about the assessment, CIA spokeswoman Liz Lyons told Reuters the agency “is not familiar with the intelligence community’s reported assessment,” which is impressive because the CIA is the intelligence community. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment, which in this context is itself a form of comment.
The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Tehran shut it by attacking ships and laying mines, a move that has pushed gas prices up worldwide and given Iran what one source called “powerful leverage.” The administration’s plan to address this leverage is currently being workshopped between the options of “admitting it” and “not admitting it.”
Last weekend, Trump canceled a diplomatic trip by special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner, who had been scheduled to meet Iranian officials in Pakistan. The president told reporters Saturday that the trip would take “too much time” and that if Iran wanted to talk, “all they had to do was call.” Iran, as of press time, had not called. It is unclear what number Iran was supposed to use, or whether the White House is taking calls from numbers it does not recognize.
A White House official described the domestic pressure on the president to wrap up the war as “enormous.” The same official did not characterize the pressure on Iran, which is “being bombed.”
"Being bombed" (WAFA (Q2915969)/wikimedia)
Various military options remain formally on the table. A renewed campaign of airstrikes on Iranian military and political leadership is reportedly still under consideration, though sources say the most ambitious options, such as a ground invasion of the Iranian mainland, appear less likely than they did several weeks ago, presumably for the same reasons they appeared less likely several weeks before that.
Among the complications: during the ceasefire, Iran has been quietly excavating the weapons systems the United States and Israel buried in the opening campaign. One source said this means the tactical cost of resuming full-scale war is now arguably higher than it was on April 8, when the ceasefire began. The strategic cost is also higher. So is the gas.
Polling on the war remains poor. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released last week found that 26% of Americans believe the campaign has been worth the cost, and 25% believe it has made the United States safer, numbers which the White House is reportedly planning to address by changing what “winning” means. Meanwhile, 7% of Americans think chocolate milk comes from brown cows. Look it up.
The intelligence community’s work is ongoing. It is not clear when it will be complete, or what the administration will do with it once it is.
This story is based on fully factual news, but if we got it wrong, blame these guys, we’re just here to make it funny.
